12 September 2017

Kazakhstan - wheat market in the IInd quarter of 2017

Basing on the official statistics figures, APK-Inform analysts updated their supply and demand balances of wheat in Kazakhstan in 2016/17 MY. Despite the fact that in the last quarter of the season-2016/17 the exports of wheat totaled 1 mln tonnes, which became the maximum index of April-June period for five recent years, the general export volumes in 2016/17 MY showed somewhat lower figures compared with the previous expectations.

Also, the current review provides the updated forecast of Kazakh wheat supply and demand balances in 2017/18 MY.


Supply and demand balances of wheat in Kazakhstan, `000 tonnes

2015/16

2016/17

2017/18

Changes, %

2016/17-
2015/16

2017/18-
2016/17

Beginning stocks

4530

4283

5288

-5,5%

+23,5%

Planted areas, `000 ha

11771

12431

12000

+5,6%

-3,5%

Harvested areas, `000 ha

11571

12373

11880

+6,9%

-4,0%

Yield, c/ha

11,9

12,1

11,0

+1,9%

-9,2%

Production

13748

14985

13068

+9,0%

-12,8%

Imports

100

50

50

-50,0%

=

Total supply

18378

19318

18406

+5,1%

-4,7%

Consumption:

9 944

10 100

10 033

+1,6%

-0,7%

food

4854

5030

4933

+3,6%

-1,9%

feed

1950

2000

2100

+2,6%

+5,0%

seeds

2490

2400

2350

-3,6%

-2,1%

losses

370

390

370

+5,4%

-5,1%

others

280

280

280

=

=

Exports

4152

3930

4000

-5,3%

+1,8%

General distribution

14095

14030

14033

-0,5%

+0,03%

Ending stocks

4283

5288

4373

+23,5%

-17,3%

Stocks-to-distribution ratio

30%

38%

31%

Hereinafter, there are presented estimations and forecasts of APK-Inform Agency (July 2017)

The estimation of wheat production in Kazakhstan in 2016/17 MY remained unchanged, and totals 15 mln tonnes, an increase of 9% compared with the harvest-2015 (13.7 mln tonnes). As for the forecast for the season-2017/18, then due to the current absence of Kazakh official statistics on crop planted areas, APK-Inform Agency did not change its previous estimations in July 2017, and still announced its forecast of wheat harvest volumes at 13 mln tonnes, down 12.8% compared with the previous season.

APK-Inform estimation of the total supply of Kazakh wheat in 2016/17 MY totals 19.3 mln tonnes (up 5.1% compared with the season-2015/16). But the total supply of wheat in 2017/18 MY will reach 18.4 mln tonnes, down 4.7% compared with the forecast for last season.

Also, APK-Inform analysts increased their estimations of domestic consumption of the grain in 2016/17 MY by 2% compared with the figures in June forecast, to 10.1 mln tonnes (up 1.6% compared with 2015/16 MY). As for separate distribution articles, APK-Inform estimations of food consumption increased to 5 mln tonnes, due to rather high processing rates of the grain, and feed consumption remained unchanged - at the level of 2 mln tonnes.

As for the season-2017/18, the domestic consumption of wheat in Kazakhstan will slightly reduce to 10 mln tonnes, down 0.7% compared with the previous MY. Food consumption of Kazakh wheat will total 4.9 mln tonnes (down 1.9% compared with 2016/17 MY).

In July 2017, APK-Inform estimated the export potential of wheat in 2016/17 MY at 3.9 mln tonnes, down 5.3% compared with the figures in the season-2015/16 (4.15 mln tonnes).

The forecast of wheat exports in 2017/18 MY reduced to 4 mln tonnes, down 1.8% compared with the season-2016/17.

Taking into account the recent adjustments, the carry-over stocks in 2016/17 MY remained almost unchanged, and totaled 5.3 mln tonnes, up 23.5% compared with the previous season (4.3 mln tonnes). In 2017/18 MY, the carry-over stocks of wheat will reach 4.4 mln tonnes, down 17.3% compared with the previous season volumes.


Source: https://www.apk-inform.com